Melissa Lee's Titanic impersonation.

So... If you follow my blog you'll notice I haven't blogged for a considerable amount of time. Why? Well, life happened: a pretty shocking flu - not swine related, or influenza b to be more correct - friends arriving for a catch up, a very interesting BBC series called The Ascent Of Man, art-house films aplenty from the interwebs, and a pile of things that needed more attention than blogging.

I originally intended to write something on the Mt Albert by-election; however the sands of time have meant that others have written far more depth analysis than I could ever hope to provide and it seems that the election is all over without a vote being cast. With the benefit of hindsight I can say now that I should've blogged as soon as I heard Melissa Lee on bfm for the sheer "told you so" factor; however not even Rasputin could of foreseen her complete and total collapse from a possible - although not very likely winner - to a hopeful third. There have been some very interesting phenomena occurring because of this election: Lee's self destruction - more on that later - the end to National's "honeymoon" period, the super city fiasco and finally the impact blogging has had on this election.
It wouldn't require anything more than a two minute google to see how much of the fighting has been done in the blogging trenches: first we had a particularly over zealous David Farrar claiming victory for the Nats because of his "Vote Twyford get Tizard" campaign which started in the Kiwiblog trenches, then we had the backlash from the left on The Standard following Russel Norman's decision to run and interestingly enough the mainstream media picked up both these stories and ran with them, adding some real tension and drama to what could have been a rather ho-hum affair. Much of the work around the supercity has also been done on the blogs, from organising marches, a hikoi, and of course providing information that gets left behind by the mainstream media, perhaps even the end of the honeymoon period can be attributed the work of numerous bloggers like no right turn, idiot savant, the standard community et al.

But let's focus on the destruction of Lee with a little back story.

Labour signaled very early what their campaign was going to hinge on: world experience, personality, credentials and so on. The Green's signaled that they were no longer going to be the whipping boy of NZ politics, no longer would they sit idly by and be picked last for the lunchtime game of touch rugby (the last drinking liberally was a further display of this particular sentiment) . Act began campaigning on all they know, big business good, people... irrelevant - they know they have no chance and instead are using the campaign as a branding exercise. The Nat's rolled out an ambitious, tough - kind of hot - woman who seemed to be a threat, at least on paper; however - as always - with National MP's one never gets a clear idea of what they stand for - we get pleasant platitudes and smiley faces but not much else. Then it became clear what Lee was going to run on, race. It started with a sneaky article in the Herald with a particularly racist chemist saying words to the effect of, I won't vote for a slant eyes like you - the actual quote is possibly even more racist than my interpretive sub-textual racial analysis - to which Lee mentioned the high percentage of Asian constituents inside the electorate. So it was clear from the get go what National's strategy was going to be, a dog whistle here, a few jabs at the previous government there, but it seems actually winning the by-election was never part of their strategy. As numerous commentators have already pointed out the real plan was to weaken the seat and claim a moral victory.

Proof of this came after listening to Melissa Lee on bfm with the other candidates, it was clear that winning the seat was a clear impossibility for National - people don't like brash, abrasive, arrogant politicians planning to demolish their houses for a mall or a new highway - and so the question has to be asked why did the Nat's run what they say was a very strong candidate instead of a well known candidate that had been active in the electorate for more than a few elections? If Melissa Lee was truly a face for the future of the National party why then did they distance themselves from her after some inflammatory comments at a election meeting and why were they made in the first place? Surely, Lee had some advisors that would've told her stereotyping the poorest and most populated area in NZ is not a good idea. Surely, they would've told her that phoning in an insincere apology after the comments is a bad move. And any advisor with even half a brain cell would've told her that admitting defeat is a move reserved for the likes of the nitwit parties like Bill and Ben, Aotearoa Legalize Cannabis Party, Destiny Church and the McGillycuddy party. It has been mind boggling, to say the least, for a political junkie like myself.

The fact National went negative from the start, the fact they rolled out a very controversial person like Christine Rankin at the same time seems even stranger. It makes one wonder if the wheel's are falling off the blue machine, but the truth is - as anyone that knows how incredibly good the National election machine is - that the by-election is the scenery and what's actually going on is something entirely different. Lee was never meant to win in Mt Albert, what she was meant to do and has done rather well is dog whistle to the party base. The Nat's got into bed with the Maori Party, a move not forgotten by their base, they recently got into bed with the Green's, a move that would scare most of its base, so really Lee's role is to let the National base know that, "hey we're still the tories, we haven't changed." This is why National ran her, this is why they have publicly left her hanging in the wind, so they can keep the veneer of being a soft-centre government for the masses by distancing themselves by her racial comments whilst winking at their party faithful. So I wouldn't be surprised if Lee stays in the party but later on gets bumped up the list.

And with that it's time to turn our attention to what is going to be the grimmest of budgets: prepare for the sky to fall in and the gates of hell to open up, prepare to watch panic pervade the media and people freak out in penny pinching hysteria, or have a glass of vino and chillax - wine's still affordable you know.